Geeking is my hobby and I spend a lot of time thinking about the future and reading and listening to opinion leaders and futurists in the geek-verse.
So, here are my fearless predictions about the future in the personal technology space. I must also admit they are a bit of wish list (are you reading this Steve?).
Before getting into the future, it is important to reflect on the past five years. What's happened? Machines have got faster, gear has got cheaper and the simple things have worked. There's no reason to think that any of these things will change.
Simplicity is the key. What do Facebook, Twitter and the iPhone all have in common - they're simple. A novice can use them. Likewise, a "power-user" can take full advantage of them. That's the key.
So, on with the show...
Prediction #1 - No more locked phones
People are sick of having phones locked to certain networks. There will be a consumer backlash. People should have the choice to buy outright or have their phone locked. Consumers will go to vendors that don't lock you in.
Prediction #2 - You won't need a cable or phone line into your house
Radio technology is getting better and soon you will be able to get data into your home or work at a very high speed via radio transmission. I don't know whether it is 4G for phones, Wi-Max or what, but I do know that for the standard user, you will be able to get what you need without being hardwired to the grid.
Prediction #3 - Long life batteries for smaller and more demanding devices.
This is where a lot of the action is and it is one thing holding deployment of new technology back. Certainly, there's great technology about but battery life is holding these back. Sooner or later, someone will crack the extra long life battery. For example, the new white MacBook has seven hours battery life (probably four in reality) but it is a good start.
Prediction #4 - Real artificial intelligence is near
I don't understand them but I do understand that algorithms are getting better. For example, Google searches are getting better and better and Apple's Genius feature in iTunes never ceases to amaze me. These are based on algorithms that know "stuff" (technical terms". Soon, computers will start serving up things I need that I haven't even thought about.
Prediction #5 - Consolidation rather than mass choice
I think we will see a lot of consolidation in manufacturing of gear and the provision of services. Several reasons sit behind this. One is that the global financial crisis has put massive pressure on margins, two - R&D budgets are being cut, three - Japan shows no sign of getting out of recession (traditional source of much innovation) and four - consumer fatigue with new technology. How much more can people really afford? Regarding the last point, certainly a lot of new consumers are coming online from China, India, Russia, Africa, etc but they will be getting old technology. Here's a final thought on this. How much longer do you think Nokia and Motorola will be around? They were so "this" and "last" decade.
Prediction #6 - I'm a Mac, you're a PC and who is Google?
Apple probably sits at just over 10 percent market share. I don't think that this will grow significantly over the next five to ten years. They may get to 15 or 20 percent but no more? Why? First, Apple gear for the basic consumer is out of reach. It costs 100 percent more in some cases. Today I was at Office Depot and you could get a greta Toshiba laptop for $499. The closest Apple was $999. Sure, Apple OS is 100% better to work with but to "Joe Six-pack" there's no deal-breaker difference. Microsoft will continue to decline. Windows 7 os good but their reputation haunts them. They will lose share to Apple. Google will become strong in operating systems for phones, net-books and PC's. The geek community will lead the charge. I also think that Google's Chrome OS that will overtake Linux as the propeller head OS of choice. My prediction: Apple OS 15%, Google 30%, Linux 5% and Microsoft 50%.
Prediction #7 - Computers will be disposable.
In 2002, I purchased a mid-range Dell desktop for USD3.5k. In 2006, I purchased a mid range iMac for USD $2.1k. Today, I can get the same Dell for USD600 and the iMac for USD1.2k. You can get a good laptop for USD500 now. There was a row of them at Office Depot today. And they're only going to get cheaper. Why would you both repairing them. JUst copy the data and thrown them out (in an environmentally friendly manner).
Prediction #8 - Spinning wheel disk drives will go soon
Flash or "Solid State Drives" are starting to appear in Apple gear and you can buy them as replacements for any Mac or PC. They're expensive now and will fall significantly in the next two years. They're quicker and more resilient. As for price, I remember buying a 128 megabyte memory stick in 2003 for USD150. I got a 4 gig one today for USD7. Amazing.
Prediction #9 - The end is near for CD and DVD
Soon, manufacturers won't include CD-ROM or DVD-ROM in laptops or desktops as standard (you can buy an external one to plug in). Flash memory is replacing this media and quickly. I use a CD/DVD a few times a year. I use a USB stick about three times a week. For home movies, you will get these digitally rather than via external media.
So, they are my fearless predictions and my wish list.
My immediate technology wants are:
The Apple tablet/iSlate predicted for the new year.
A MacBook pro without a DVD and longer battery life.
Prediction #10 - My friends will come up with this
I also posted this challenge on Facebook (ie. what do you think is coming). Here's what they came back with:
Mark Textor
Full cable, free to air available on all mobiles. Look for rapid improvements in battery technology with free wireless charging in multiple locations.
Mark makes a good point. I also expect "free" to air to start charging for viewing in the next few years. I know that's not free.
Beth Powell
It'll be all mobile
I agree but much of it has to do with batteries and access (and not at exorbitant prices)
Shane Harmon
Out-hard drives - In-The cloud.
Out-software - In-Apps.
Out-slow broadband - In-(really hopes) 100MB broadband.
Out-Notebooks - In-tablets.
Out-TV broadcast to millions - In-TV broadcast to you
Also think there will be a lot of consolidation in social media. Bye Bebo, MySpace. But watch out Facebook and Twitter for Google Wave. This will be the biggest thing in the next 5 years.
I was going to say that corporations will really grasp social media, but I'm still amazed at the people I meet who are afraid about what people will say about their company.
Shane, I totally agree. I think Twitter will go out of favor for a while. There's too much commercial stuff and p&%n starting to turn up. This will turn people off but then they will come back.
Paul Brennan
GPS based location services. At all times, www will know where we are ... Big Brother, but all good. Why do we need a passport when a www id would be fine. You and I are both at the mall, but dont know it. Maybe we both subscribe to starbucks and we both get a message suggesting we meet at XYZ to meet. No brainer, but extend it to everything - jobs, petrol, needs, etc.
Paul, I agree. Location based stuff is interesting. The great thing about it is when you don't realize that it is working. It just turns up. I think what you are talking about will be better when the iPhone can run multiple applications at any one time.
Alan Dean
Google OS: the end of the hard drive?
Alan, snap!
Labomba Almond
Standard adaptors in 30years
Paul, yes, this is underway in mobile telephones. Apparently this isn't far off.
So there you go. These are thoughts and ideas from non IT type people. I hope Facebook is still around in five years so I can see if we got it right.
Time to put the crystal ball away and return to today.
A few people have asked "So, what do you think of the iPad from Apple?". 
